Battle Hardened: Columbus 2026 - Kayo (SAGE)

Kayo

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Cleveland

33rd • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Eric Meadows (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Michaud (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Charlie LaPan (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Cannon (Terra) - Expected: 22:78

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Josh Norton (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Philip Stolze (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Terra	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Matt Brehm

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Chane) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Burns (Chane) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Scanlon (Dromai) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Vince Biamonte (Chane) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.70
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Dayton Smallwood

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Egbert (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Chane) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mara Faris (Chane) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.