Oldhim at Battle Hardened: Columbus 2026

Oldhim

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Logan Zarnick

5th • 6-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

Deck

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cooper Templeton (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Philip Stolze (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jo Burch (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael Godfrey (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Michaud (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.65
R6	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.78
R7	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-

Hayden Jeanson

3rd • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

Deck

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Herzog ()

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Victor Mercado (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dayton Smallwood (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ian Cannon (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mara Faris (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.89
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.19
R7	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Cody Williams

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zak Miller (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs AVERY LARRICK (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ben Miller (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

0:100

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Cubi Nguyen (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.81
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-

Brandon Hartman

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jon Mann (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Phillip Pelley (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dan Groseclose (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.25
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Dylan Case

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Vince Biamonte (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ty Hicks (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.