Oldhim at Battle Hardened: Columbus 2026

Oldhim

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Logan Zarnick

5th • 6-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cooper Templeton (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Philip Stolze (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jo Burch (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael Godfrey (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Michaud (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.23
R5	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.60
R6	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.72
R7	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Hayden Jeanson

3rd • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Herzog ()

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Victor Mercado (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dayton Smallwood (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ian Cannon (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mara Faris (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R4	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.98
R7	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Cody Williams

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zak Miller (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs AVERY LARRICK (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ben Miller (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

5:95

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Cubi Nguyen (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.59
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.72
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-

Brandon Hartman

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jon Mann (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Phillip Pelley (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dan Groseclose (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.32
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Dylan Case

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Vince Biamonte (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ty Hicks (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.