Valda Brightaxe at Battle Hardened: Columbus 2026
Valda Brightaxe
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
13th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.1
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Mel Falcon (Chane) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
50:50
R2 SAGE
Round 2: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Briar) - Expected: 49:51
Round 3: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R4 SAGE
Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Michaud (Briar) - Expected: 49:51
75:25
R5 SAGE
Round 5: Win vs Andre Francis (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27
70:30
R6 SAGE
Round 6: Win vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 71:29
75:25
R7 SAGE
Round 7: Win vs John Milner (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oldhim | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Briar | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea | 75% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.