Briar at Battle Hardened: Columbus 2026

Briar

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonathan Michaud

1st • 6-1-0

29%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

4.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Stolze (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Cleveland (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Crabtree (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Josh Perry (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Clements (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Logan Zarnick (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.76
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.04
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Win	✗	0.76	2.04

Luis Maderas

25th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Colin Turner (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jo Burch (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Phillip Spader (Terra) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jon Mann (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Patrick Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ryu San jose (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.58
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Phillip Pelley

31st • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Josh Franks (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Cubi Nguyen (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Lau (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs McKenna Cleveland (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.60
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Gil Beloate

32nd • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kirby Hill (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Vince Biamonte (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alan Chavarin (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Charlie LaPan (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs David Cleveland (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

McKenna Cleveland

34th • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Godfrey (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Josh Gavin (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Colin Turner (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Egbert (Pleiades) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Phillip Pelley (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Silver Age	Pleiades	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.23
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Jo Burch

dropped • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Luis Maderas (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Logan Zarnick (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jon Mann (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Lexi) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.01
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Josh Gavin

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mara Faris (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs McKenna Cleveland (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jon Mann (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Josh Franks (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Brandon Leimenstoll

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs None ()

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matt Muus (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Kirby Hill

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Juan Pineda (Aurora) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Ybarra (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Brian Hoffman

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Logan Zarnick (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.