Ira, Crimson Haze at Battle Hardened: Columbus 2026

Ira, Crimson Haze

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Caleb Jansen

11th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Brady (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andre Francis (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Godfrey (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Zak Miller (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alan Chavarin (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mara Faris (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.73
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.51
R6	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.69

Adam Fronsee

12th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.6

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Norton (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Roberts (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Lau (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Cody Williams (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matt Brehm (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Illuvial Arnett (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Clements (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R6	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.09
R7	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.27

Dan Groseclose

14th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.3

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andre Francis (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Phillip Millwee (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tree Garman (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Burns (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs David Stolze (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.04
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

Justin Anthony

21st • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Millwee (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Zak Miller (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andre Francis (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Josh Norton (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ian Cannon (Terra) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	Silver Age	Terra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.93
R7	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Ryu San jose

30th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cam Dayton ()

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Philip Stolze (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Cannon (Terra) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Charlie LaPan (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs JT Bruhn (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs John Milner (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.41
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Patrick Kelly

dropped • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Eric Meadows (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Burns (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs McKenna Cleveland (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mel Falcon (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.87
R5	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

AVERY LARRICK

dropped • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alan Chavarin (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Scanlon (Dromai) - Expected: 79:21

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Williams (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andre Francis (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kyle Grimm (Olympia) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs JT Bruhn (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.