Battle Hardened: Columbus 2026 - Bravo, Flattering Showman (SAGE)

Bravo, Flattering Showman

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Stolze

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Michaud (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Colin Turner (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs John Milner (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Eric Meadows (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tree Garman (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Dan Groseclose (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Ben Miller

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Shane Cooper ()

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mel Falcon (Chane) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Zak Miller (Chane) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Cody Williams (Oldhim) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Ty Hicks

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dylan Case (Oldhim) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Muus (Chane) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R3	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Matthew McInnis

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Chane) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Charlie LaPan (Rhinar) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.