Azalea at Battle Hardened: Columbus 2026

Azalea

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Cooper Templeton

9th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ty Hicks (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Logan Zarnick (Oldhim) - Expected: 28:72

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Chane) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Victor Mercado (Chane) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nathan Burns (Chane) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Chane) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.27
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.42
R6	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

John Milner

20th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cubi Nguyen (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Godfrey (Chane) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Stolze (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs JT Bruhn (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ryu San jose (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.80
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.19
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Philip Stolze

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Mosholder ()

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ryu San jose (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Logan Zarnick (Oldhim) - Expected: 28:72

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Chane) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs David Cleveland (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.46
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Josh Norton

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Chane) - Expected: 67:33

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Anthony (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs David Cleveland (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.28
R2	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Josh Perry

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Scanlon (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Vince Biamonte (Chane) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Christian Ybarra (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Michaud (Briar) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Andre Francis

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dan Groseclose (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Jansen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Anthony (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs AVERY LARRICK (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.28
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.11
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christian Ybarra

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Burns (Chane) - Expected: 67:33

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kirby Hill (Briar) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Josh Perry (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.03
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.