Battle Hardened: Columbus 2026 - Azalea (SAGE)

Azalea

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Cooper Templeton

9th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ty Hicks (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Logan Zarnick (Oldhim) - Expected: 22:78

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Chane) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Victor Mercado (Chane) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nathan Burns (Chane) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Chane) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.42
R6	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.10
R7	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

John Milner

20th • 4-3-0

14%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cubi Nguyen (Enigma) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Godfrey (Chane) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Stolze (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs JT Bruhn (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Kano) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ryu San jose (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.74
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.65
R5	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.27
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Philip Stolze

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Mosholder ()

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ryu San jose (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Logan Zarnick (Oldhim) - Expected: 22:78

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Chane) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs David Cleveland (Kayo) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.49
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.42

Josh Norton

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Chane) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Anthony (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs David Cleveland (Kayo) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.30
R2	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.42

Josh Perry

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Scanlon (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Vince Biamonte (Chane) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Christian Ybarra (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Michaud (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Andre Francis

dropped • 2-3-0

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dan Groseclose (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Jansen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Anthony (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs AVERY LARRICK (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.30
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.18
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Christian Ybarra

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Burns (Chane) - Expected: 67:33

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kirby Hill (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Josh Perry (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.95
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.