Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened: Singapore

Arakni, Marionette

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jose Lau

5th • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ojus Sharma (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eon Lovelace (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ming Hao Leong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jason Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Chia Yong Teck (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.48
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.43
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kelvin Tan

5th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Loh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Danial Faizsal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alfred Lauw (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs shirui wu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rafe Ang (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 72:28

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dave Chia (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.13
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.71
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.30
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.62
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Reeve Chia

26th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kangsen Ang (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dong Quek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs shirui wu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nigel Teo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Shawn Ng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Benjamin Tan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Peng Joon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.82
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.87
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Thaddius Ho

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

95:5

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jerome Chua (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 93:7

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Albern Song (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Denny Koh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Edwin Liew (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs kc wong (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.02
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.76
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Baron Chan

dropped • 2-1-1

75%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs ChangSheng Sze Tho (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kaiser Tan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 33:67

95:5

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jerome Chua (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 93:7

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eugene Lim Z.J (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Draw	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.08
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Brenna Tan

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Poon (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jarren Goh (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Deitrich Mohan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kaiser Tan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

ZJ Ang

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Edwin Liew (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wei Jie Yeo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Chia (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Zhang (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.