Battle Hardened: Singapore - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jose Lau

5th • 7-1-0

88%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ojus Sharma (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eon Lovelace (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ming Hao Leong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jason Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Chia Yong Teck (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.32
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.32
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.91
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Kelvin Tan

5th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Loh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Danial Faizsal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alfred Lauw (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs shirui wu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rafe Ang (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dave Chia (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.32
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.65
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.44
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.62
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Reeve Chia

26th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kangsen Ang (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dong Quek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs shirui wu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nigel Teo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Shawn Ng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Benjamin Tan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Peng Joon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.16
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.30
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.81
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.89
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Thaddius Ho

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jerome Chua (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 79:21

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Albern Song (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Denny Koh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Edwin Liew (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs kc wong (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.07
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.76
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Baron Chan

dropped • 2-1-1

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs ChangSheng Sze Tho (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kaiser Tan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 39:61

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jerome Chua (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 79:21

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eugene Lim Z.J (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.26
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Brenna Tan

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Poon (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jarren Goh (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Deitrich Mohan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kaiser Tan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

ZJ Ang

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Edwin Liew (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wei Jie Yeo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Chia (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Zhang (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.