Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Battle Hardened: Singapore

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yong Yi Chua

44th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chin hao Teo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chia Yong Teck (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eon Lovelace (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dusk Low (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Melvin Chew (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nicholas Looi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Danial Faizsal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.06
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.36
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.46
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Nicholas On

47th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hao Yang Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alaric Ng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chu Heng Eng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Denny Koh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dave Chia (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sean Tan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Derek Yang (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.24
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.53

Xiu Meng Yip

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Edwin Kan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Tan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Poon (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Derek Yang (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Marquis Tan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.32
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.42
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Daren Choo

dropped • 2-1-1

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jozelle Koh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chung Si Chia (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Ben Ong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dong Quek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Draw	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Wei Jie Yeo

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Melvin Chew (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs ZJ Ang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bernie L (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Damon Yang (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.63

Jamie Pok

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chuan Yang Loy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chin hao Teo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Toh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.30
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.