Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened: Singapore

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alaric Ng

18th • 5-1-1

57%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yoong Kean Leong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas On (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Peng Joon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chu Heng Eng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Chuan Yang Loy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eugene Neo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nigel Teo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.48
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Draw	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.29
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.63
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.13

Joshua Zhang

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dong Quek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chun Huat Kua (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Amirruddin Sheik (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs ZJ Ang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ives K (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 83:17

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dave Chia (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.16
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.22
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Amirruddin Sheik

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hao Yang Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Zhang (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.