Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Battle Hardened: Milan
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 7-2-0
78%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
4.7
Surp
3.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
Round 4: Win vs Alex Vioni (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lorenzo Miele (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Simone Pirota (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
5th • 6-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Aurelien Souchet (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Pierantonio Ostuni (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Federico Chiarel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Vincenzo Di Maio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Mario De Stefano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
5th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
4.3
Surp
3.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alberto Di Blasi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Round 2: Win vs Leo Dancette (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Simone Pagani (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Andrea Tosi (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 6: Win vs Bottino Valerio (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
26th • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Angelo Zaccardi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrea Albani (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Rosario La Canea (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mihailo Bulajic (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 28:72
Round 5: Win vs Alex Vioni (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Simone Sieli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
28th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Luca McClure (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Luca Barcella (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Cavazzini (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bottino Valerio (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 28:72
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Mirko Macchia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Pierantonio Ostuni (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
32nd • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Gianluca Razza (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniele Bigagli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alberto Di Blasi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Leonardo Giuliano (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Andrea Tosi (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Fabrizio Cenacchi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
37th • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Chang Li (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alessandro Berganton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marko Antonic (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jean-Pierre Reich (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matteo Lista (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Rosario La Canea (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Stefano tosoni (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
64th • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Luca Barcella (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rosario La Canea (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Luca McClure (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrea Albani (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Stefano tosoni (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Alessandro Berganton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Carlo Brugo (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
67th • 1-5-1
71%
Meta
-2.4
Perf
3.4
Surp
0.9
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Emanuele Carvelli (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Caregnato (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Luca McClure (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Fabio Brambilla (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs None ()
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Andrea Ceschin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Draw |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | 50% | Win | |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Leonardo Giuliano (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Simone Pirota (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs George Rodger (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jean-Pierre Reich (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Chang Li (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.