Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
10th • 5-2-0
29%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marco Nogarole (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matteo Lista (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mario De Stefano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72
Round 5: Win vs Mihailo Bulajic (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs filippo pirazzoli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
17th • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.2
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Simone Quartieri (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Giuseppe Cervone (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
Round 3: Win vs Edoardo Galli (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrea Milaneschi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Round 7: Loss vs Andrea Tosi (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 65% | Loss |
36th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matteo Fattori (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bottino Valerio (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Pierantonio Ostuni (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jakob Indra (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Leonardo Giuliano (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Andrea Milaneschi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
63rd • 2-5-0
71%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
3.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Drees Giebel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Stefano tosoni (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alessandro Brogi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Marco Nogarole (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jakob Indra (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Fabio Brambilla (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 70:30
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 70% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Leonardo Eterni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alessandro Brogi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Round 3: Loss vs Simone Quartieri (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matteo Lista (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Pierantonio Ostuni (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.