Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Battle Hardened: Milan
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
10th • 5-2-0
29%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Marco Nogarole (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matteo Lista (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16
Round 3: Win vs Mario De Stefano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67
Round 5: Win vs Mihailo Bulajic (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs filippo pirazzoli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67
85:15
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
17th • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Simone Quartieri (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Giuseppe Cervone (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 82:18
Round 3: Win vs Edoardo Galli (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrea Milaneschi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 82:18
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Andrea Tosi (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
36th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matteo Fattori (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bottino Valerio (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Pierantonio Ostuni (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jakob Indra (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Leonardo Giuliano (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Andrea Milaneschi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 82:18
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
63rd • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Drees Giebel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Stefano tosoni (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alessandro Brogi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Marco Nogarole (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jakob Indra (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Fabio Brambilla (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Leonardo Eterni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Win vs Alessandro Brogi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Round 3: Loss vs Simone Quartieri (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matteo Lista (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Pierantonio Ostuni (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.