Battle Hardened: Milan - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alessandro Brogi

34th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniele Bigagli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marco Zappaterra (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aurelien Souchet (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tobias Hartfiel (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alberto D'Onofrio (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Gaia Bormida (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.65
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.66
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.70
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Stefano Parisotto

43rd • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emanuele Damiani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Giuseppe Cervone (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Luca McClure (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mihailo Bulajic (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.50
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.45
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.08
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrea Albani

65th • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mihailo Bulajic (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mirko Macchia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matteo Fattori (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrea Ceschin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Srdja Stetic-Kozic (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Fabio Brambilla (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 79:21

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.29
R7	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.