Nuu, Alluring Desire at Battle Hardened: Milan

Nuu, Alluring Desire

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni

1st • 8-2-0

60%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stefano Parisotto (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 83:17

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vincenzo Di Maio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs filippo pirazzoli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.08
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.25
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.28
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.51
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.13
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.26

Edoardo Galli

18th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alessandro Berganton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Federico Chiarel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vincenzo Di Maio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mario De Stefano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gianluca Razza (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.37
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.62
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Marko Antonic

55th • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Milaneschi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniele Milani (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniele Bigagli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Drees Giebel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Stefano tosoni (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jean-Pierre Reich (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Luca Barcella

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrea Ceschin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Simone Sieli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Drees Giebel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Emanuele Damiani

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fabrizio Cenacchi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alberto D'Onofrio (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stefano Parisotto (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.