Vynnset, Iron Maiden
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
35th • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
4.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gaia Bormida (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 27:73
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tobias Hartfiel (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 51:49
Round 5: Win vs George Rodger (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs gabriele paletti (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 7: Win vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
40th • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tommaso Tranchese ()
Round 2: Win vs Marko Antonic (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Vioni (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Vincenzo Di Maio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Angelo Zaccardi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Stefano Galli (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
62nd • 2-5-0
29%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tobias Hartfiel (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 51:49
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Vincenzo Di Maio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Tosi (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 29:71
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Stefano Parisotto (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Fabrizio Cenacchi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Srdja Stetic-Kozic (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 27:73
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Emanuele Carvelli (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Leonardo Giuliano (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Francesco Fiumanò (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 27:73
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Mario De Stefano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.