Fang, Dracai of Blades at Battle Hardened: Milan

Fang, Dracai of Blades

Fang, Dracai of Blades

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Danilo Calcagno

25th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

Dorinthea Ironsong

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrea Caregnato (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mario De Stefano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 35:65

Prism, Awakener of Sol

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Federico Sirri (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Cavazzini (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

Kassai of the Golden Sand

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alberto D'Onofrio (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Drees Giebel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrea Pizzetti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.09
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.89
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

33rd • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aurelien Souchet (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Prism, Awakener of Sol

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mihailo Bulajic (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 24:76

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Francesco Fiumanò (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 35:65

Nuu, Alluring Desire

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luca Barcella (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 67:33

Nuu, Alluring Desire

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Marko Antonic (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 67:33

Fang, Dracai of Blades

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Danilo Calcagno (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Arakni, Marionette

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alex Vioni (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.23
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.33
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.41
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.45

48th • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Federico Chiarel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 35:65

Dorinthea Ironsong

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrea Caregnato (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aurelien Souchet (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67

Arakni, Marionette

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Emanuele Carvelli (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andrea Ceschin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

Nuu, Alluring Desire

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Marko Antonic (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 67:33

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniele Milani (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.18
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.88
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.49
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Leonardo Giuliano

51st • 3-4-0

0%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.3

Diff

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs gabriele paletti (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Simone Pagani (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

Prism, Awakener of Sol

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leo Dancette (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marco Nogarole (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Leonardo Eterni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Stefano Galli (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67

Kano, Dracai of Aether

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alessandro Berganton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.89
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.87
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Win	✗	0.82	2.50

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.