Kano, Dracai of Aether at Battle Hardened: Milan
Kano, Dracai of Aether
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
61st • 2-5-0
100%
Meta
-2.8
Perf
4.0
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Edoardo Galli (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniele Milani (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42
Round 3: Loss vs George Rodger (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Srdja Stetic-Kozic (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16
Round 5: Loss vs Matteo Fattori (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Andrea Ceschin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42
Round 7: Loss vs Leonardo Giuliano (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 80% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.