Prism, Awakener of Sol at Battle Hardened: Milan
Prism, Awakener of Sol
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
20th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
Round 2: Win vs Luca McClure (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Stefano Galli (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Francesco Fiumanò (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Simone Sieli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 72:28
Round 6: Loss vs Simone Pirota (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
29th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrea Albani (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Drees Giebel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gianluca Razza (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mirko Macchia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 72:28
Round 5: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Stefano Parisotto (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
57th • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Leo Dancette (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
Round 3: Loss vs Danilo Calcagno (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
Round 4: Win vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
Round 6: Loss vs Andrea Pizzetti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Luca McClure (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 75% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Loss vs Simone Pirota (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Leonardo Giuliano (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Fabio Brambilla (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 75% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.