Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025 - Brazil
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 3-5-0
75%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.0
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs LUIZ FERREIRA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs victor giovannini (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Raphael Barrese (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Arthur Murta (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Tsutomu Matsumoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Arthur Murta (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
14th • 4-2-0
83%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.2
Surp
4.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Thiago Lomba (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs David Carvalho (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
Round 3: Loss vs Leonardo Lavorato (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Daniel Dertoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs MATHEUS TEIXEIRA OTRE (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Loss |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
26th • 4-2-0
33%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.2
Surp
5.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Vitor Negri (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Win vs Lucas Feliz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Saulo Marx Paiva (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Gustavo Vacilotto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Rafael Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Ricardo de Campos Dorini (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
5.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
23rd • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs VITOR MILIONI (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marcel Moscatelli (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Yan Pedroni (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
Round 12: Loss vs Leonardo Lavorato (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 2-1-0
33%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Laerte Cursino (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Win vs Alexandre Boim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-1-0
67%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
1.4
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Raphael Rosa (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Vitor Negri (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Luiz Bretas (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Rafael Sarubo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tsutomu Matsumoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evandro Campos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mateus Barros (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Miranda (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.6
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ricardo de Campos Dorini (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Navarro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sidrack Augusto Correia Junior (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Win |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rafael Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Raphael Rosa (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hugo Ribeiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.