Dorinthea Ironsong at National Championship 2025

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lucas Bortolucci

17th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

4.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Diorge Brognara (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fábio Antunes Gomes Pitta Pinheiro (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Guilherme Brito silva (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs VITOR MILIONI (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Rafael De Melo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Raphael Rosa (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.14
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.93
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Yuri Pires

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vinicius Timm Toniazzo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vinicius Knop (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Fábio Antunes Gomes Pitta Pinheiro (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Laerte Cursino

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs CAIO ZAMBELLI (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hugo Ribeiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Augusto Pinho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.