National Championship 2025 - Brazil - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lucas Bortolucci

17th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Diorge Brognara (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fábio Antunes Gomes Pitta Pinheiro (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Guilherme Brito silva (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs VITOR MILIONI (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Rafael De Melo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Raphael Rosa (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.14
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.45
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.51
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.76

Yuri Pires

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vinicius Timm Toniazzo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vinicius Knop (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Fábio Antunes Gomes Pitta Pinheiro (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.27

Laerte Cursino

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs CAIO ZAMBELLI (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hugo Ribeiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Augusto Pinho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.73
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.