Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025

Arakni, Marionette

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Augusto Pinho

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luís Fernando Sae (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs LUCAS DE CASTRO (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Laerte Cursino (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.78
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Alexandre Boim

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Evandro Campos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs CAIO ZAMBELLI (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Aquino (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Caio Bal

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marcelo Gazzaneo (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Leonardo Lavorato (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Breno Santos (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Leonardo Pessôa

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arthur Murta (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luis Felipe Bueno da Silva (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jhony Oliveira (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.54

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.