National Championship 2025 - Brazil - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Augusto Pinho

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luís Fernando Sae (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs LUCAS DE CASTRO (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Laerte Cursino (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Alexandre Boim

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Evandro Campos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs CAIO ZAMBELLI (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Aquino (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Caio Bal

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marcelo Gazzaneo (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Leonardo Lavorato (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Breno Santos (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Leonardo Pessôa

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arthur Murta (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luis Felipe Bueno da Silva (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jhony Oliveira (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.