Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship 2025 - Brazil
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 6-3-0
56%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
4.2
Surp
6.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Leonardo Pessôa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Carlos Eduardo Amaral da Silva (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Win vs LUIZ FERREIRA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Raphael Rosa (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42
30:70
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Tsutomu Matsumoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Luiz Bretas (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Anthony Colaco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Luiz Bretas (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Raphael Barrese (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
6.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R14 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
5th • 5-2-0
29%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
3.3
Surp
6.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Gustavo Vacilotto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Danilo Maeda dos Santos (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23
Round 3: Win vs Phelipe da Hora (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Ricardo de Campos Dorini (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
Round 11: Win vs Enzo Braga e Franco (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Round 12: Win vs Hugo Ribeiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
25:75
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Pedro Ugioni (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
6.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R10 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R13 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 25% | Loss |
25th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Arthur Murta (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rafael Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
75:25
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs José Roberto Oliveira (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Yan Pedroni (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35
Round 12: Loss vs Gabriel Singh Bruno (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 75% | Win |
| R11 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
0.9
Surp
0.2
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Breno Santos (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Flávio Castro (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Enzo Braga e Franco (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
0.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Colaco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lucas Santana (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Fabiano Shigueyoshi Shimada Watanabe (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.2
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Singh Bruno (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
Round 2: Loss vs Heitor Pooli Barbosa (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Renan Albertino (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
0.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Raphael Barrese (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Anthony de Oliveira Voltz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Izumi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.