FaB-Results

Katsu, the Wanderer at National Championship 2025 - Brazil

Katsu, the Wanderer

Katsu, the Wanderer

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Pedro Ugioni
3rd • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
4.2
Surp
9.2
Diff
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Saulo Marx Paiva (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Prism, Awakener of Sol
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Enzo Braga e Franco (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
Riptide, Lurker of the Deep
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gustavo Alda (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
!!
15:85
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Raphael Gaspar (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Flávio Castro (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
!!
20:80
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Rodrigo Mesquita (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
75:25
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Daniel Dertoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 75:25
Prism, Awakener of Sol
40:60
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Raphael Barrese (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
Tales de Mesquita Simioni
36th • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.7
Diff
Fang, Dracai of Blades
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bruno Santos (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Felipe Rita (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tsutomu Matsumoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Fabiano Shigueyoshi Shimada Watanabe (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
20:80
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Breno Santos (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
Dash I/O
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Rafael De Melo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.