Prism, Awakener of Sol at National Championship 2025 - Brazil
Prism, Awakener of Sol
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 9-0-0
67%
Meta
+4.0
Perf
4.0
Surp
7.8
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lucas Aquino (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Raphael Gaspar (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Renan Albertino (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Luiz Bretas (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Tsutomu Matsumoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs victor giovannini (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Pedro Ugioni (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 60:40
65:35
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Arthur Murta (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+4.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
7.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Win |
| R15 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
24th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alexandre Castanheira (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Win vs Anthony Colaco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tetsuo Matsumura (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15
Round 10: Loss vs Rodrigo Mesquita (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Bernardo Coelho (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Guilherme Brito silva (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 25% | Loss |
21st • 3-2-1
83%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Mateus Barros (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Pedro Ugioni (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 60:40
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Celso Alves Lima Neto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Heitor Pooli Barbosa (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
Round 11: Loss vs Daniel Dertoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Rafael Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Draw |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
10th • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.7
Surp
3.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tsutomu Matsumoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Laerte Cursino (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Rogelio Passafaro (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Leonardo Lavorato (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
Round 12: Loss vs Daniel Dertoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.9
Surp
3.3
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Guilherme Brito silva (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 24:76
Round 2: Loss vs MATHEUS TEIXEIRA OTRE (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs LUCAS DE CASTRO (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
Round 10: Win vs Lucas Fernandes Andrade (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Round 11: Loss vs Tetsuo Matsumura (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Loss |
dropped • 3-0-0
33%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Phelipe da Hora (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Yuri Pires (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Pedro Caliman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Furtado (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marcelo Gazzaneo (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Everton Furtado (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs victor giovannini (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Miranda (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alexandre Castanheira (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Carlos Eduardo Amaral da Silva (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs VITOR MILIONI (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.