National Championship 2025 - Brazil - Prism, Awakener of Sol (CC)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Raphael Barrese

1st • 9-0-0

100%

Meta

+3.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

7.0

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Aquino (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Raphael Gaspar (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Renan Albertino (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Luiz Bretas (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tsutomu Matsumoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs victor giovannini (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Pedro Ugioni (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Arthur Murta (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

7.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.07
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.17
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.99
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.76
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.25
R13	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.44
R14	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.96
R15	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.98

Lucas Furtado

24th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexandre Castanheira (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Colaco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tetsuo Matsumura (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Rodrigo Mesquita (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Bernardo Coelho (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Guilherme Brito silva (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.46
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.11
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.64
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Enzo Braga e Franco

21st • 3-2-1

83%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Mateus Barros (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pedro Ugioni (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Celso Alves Lima Neto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Heitor Pooli Barbosa (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Daniel Dertoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Rafael Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Draw	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.25
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R12	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Hugo Ribeiro

10th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.2

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tsutomu Matsumoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Laerte Cursino (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rogelio Passafaro (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Leonardo Lavorato (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Daniel Dertoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.25
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.64
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Lucas Feliz

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.5

Diff

Deck

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Guilherme Brito silva (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 22:78

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs MATHEUS TEIXEIRA OTRE (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs LUCAS DE CASTRO (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lucas Fernandes Andrade (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

85:15

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Tetsuo Matsumura (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.90
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-

Vinicius Knop

dropped • 3-0-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Phelipe da Hora (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yuri Pires (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pedro Caliman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.75

Alexandre Castanheira

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Furtado (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marcelo Gazzaneo (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Everton Furtado (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Everton Furtado

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs victor giovannini (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Miranda (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexandre Castanheira (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Carlos Eduardo Amaral da Silva (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs VITOR MILIONI (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.