Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025 - Brazil
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
22nd • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Fernando Caprino (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Diorge Brognara (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35
75:25
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 75:25
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Rodrigo Mesquita (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Flávio Castro (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.