Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Leonardo Lavorato

13th • 5-1-0

33%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

6.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Fabiano Shigueyoshi Shimada Watanabe (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Caio Bal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ricardo de Campos Dorini (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Gabriel Singh Bruno (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Hugo Ribeiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Diorge Brognara (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

6.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.90
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.47
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Win	✗	0.71	3.61

Bernardo Coelho

33rd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Victor Matsumoto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evandro Campos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Tocci (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs LUIZ FERREIRA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lucas Furtado (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.09
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.77

Renan Albertino

19th • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs LUCAS DE CASTRO (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Raphael Gaspar (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Miguel Ardovino (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Raphael Barrese (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs victor giovannini (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs David Carvalho (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R12	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Darcy Camargo

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs André Lim (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rafael Sarubo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Vinicius Timm Toniazzo

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yuri Pires (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jhony Oliveira (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicolas Veloso Sitis (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.34
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.