National Championship 2025 - Brazil - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yan Pedroni

30th • 5-1-0

50%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.2

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Caio Mafra (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs André Lim (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victor Matsumoto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Diorge Brognara (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Carlos Eduardo Amaral da Silva (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Fabiano Shigueyoshi Shimada Watanabe (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.28
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.39
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.57

Lucas Silvério Oliveira

40th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

5.5

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Leonardo Tozato (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs André Lim (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lucas Aquino (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs LUIZ FERREIRA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Win	✗	0.75	3.68
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

André Lim

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Darcy Camargo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yan Pedroni (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Silvério Oliveira (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.37
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.