Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yan Pedroni

30th • 5-1-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.8

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Caio Mafra (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs André Lim (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victor Matsumoto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Diorge Brognara (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Carlos Eduardo Amaral da Silva (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Fabiano Shigueyoshi Shimada Watanabe (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.32
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.39
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	1.14

Lucas Silvério Oliveira

40th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

6.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Leonardo Tozato (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs André Lim (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

20:80

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lucas Aquino (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs LUIZ FERREIRA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Win	✗	0.80	4.22
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

André Lim

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Darcy Camargo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yan Pedroni (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Silvério Oliveira (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.