Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

victor giovannini

5th • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Everton Furtado (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Guilherme Brito silva (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paulo Amora (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Luiz Bretas (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Renan Albertino (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Anthony Colaco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Raphael Barrese (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.16
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.19
R12	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Raphael Gaspar

28th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marcel Moscatelli (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Renan Albertino (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Raphael Barrese (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

85:15

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Pedro Ugioni (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Gabriel Singh Bruno (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tetsuo Matsumura (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Thiago Almeida Cunha

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Navarro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rodrigo Mesquita (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs IAN MESQUITA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Rafael De Melo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.49
R10	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Vitor Negri

dropped • 3-0-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs MATHEUS TEIXEIRA OTRE (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Flávio Castro (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Luís Fernando Sae

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Augusto Pinho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tetsuo Matsumura (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ian Nícolas Lemes Alves (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Lucas Santana

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paulo Amora (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joao Morato (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mateus Barros (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.16

Luis Felipe Bueno da Silva

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rodrigo Mesquita (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Leonardo Pessôa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Henrique Gouvêa (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.87
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Sidrack Augusto Correia Junior

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rafael De Melo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rafael Sarubo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thiago Lomba (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.