Riptide, Lurker of the Deep at National Championship 2025

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thiago Almeida Cunha (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thiago Lomba (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Felipe Rita (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.74
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Breno Santos (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

Katsu, the Wanderer

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pedro Ugioni (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.