Kassai of the Golden Sand at National Championship 2025

Kassai of the Golden Sand

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Fábio Antunes Gomes Pitta Pinheiro

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Tocci (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuri Pires (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Jhony Oliveira

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Carvalho (Dash I/O) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vinicius Timm Toniazzo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Leonardo Pessôa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Maurício Tavares

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Flávio Castro (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Phelipe da Hora (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Leonardo Tozato (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.