Battle Hardened: Chicago 2024 - Living Legend - Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light (LL)

Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

SEAN STELL

9th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

25:75

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75

45:55

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Zak Miller (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.24
R2	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R4	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.99
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Trevor Galligan

24th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Perry (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Carrico (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Dawn DeLozier (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 38:62

90:10

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 92:8

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Dominick Wolfgang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

90:10

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 92:8, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.24
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.08
R5	LL	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	90%	Loss	✓	0.92	-

Logan King

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

90:10

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 92:8

35:65

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Carrico (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 45:55

90:10

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Damien Riggins (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 92:8

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.02
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	LL	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.12

Logan Reinert

dropped • 1-3-1

80%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Barrett (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Siuda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

R3 LL

Round 3: Draw vs John Milner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	LL	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alice Abuhadba

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Femmer (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Taylor Crawford

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Ronit Patel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.