Battle Hardened: Chicago 2024 - Living Legend - Dromai, Ash Artist (LL)

Dromai, Ash Artist

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Aaron Shantz

3rd • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Zachary Wallach (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Ian Carrico (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

75:25

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs SEAN STELL (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 22:78

45:55

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Jeremy Kruman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R3	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.82
R4	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R5	LL	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.51
R6	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R7	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.95
R8	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Trevyn June

22nd • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

70:30

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Bray (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

20:80

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 22:78

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Matt Garner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

20:80

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Ian Carrico (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.45
R3	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R4	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R5	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Joshua Rath

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

20:80

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 22:78

20:80

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

70:30

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.46
R3	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Zachary Wallach

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.