Dromai, Ash Artist at Battle Hardened: Chicago 2024

Dromai, Ash Artist

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Aaron Shantz

3rd • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Zachary Wallach (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Ian Carrico (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs SEAN STELL (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 38:62

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Jeremy Kruman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.52
R4	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	LL	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Trevyn June

22nd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Bray (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 38:62

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Matt Garner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Ian Carrico (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.49
R3	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Joshua Rath

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.92
R3	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Zachary Wallach

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.