Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at Battle Hardened: Chicago 2024 - Living Legend
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.1
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
65:35
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Dien Tran (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Damien Riggins (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 6: Win vs Lucas Barding (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
R7
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
15th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
35:65
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 36:64
65:35
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Charles Dunn (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 67:33
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Matt Garner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Trevor Galligan (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.4
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Joe Robles (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
65:35
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 67:33
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.8
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
35:65
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 36:64
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Trevyn June (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Dominick Wolfgang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Rich Pauls (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Trevor Galligan (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.