Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at Battle Hardened: Chicago 2024

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Pat Eshghy

5th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

10:90

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 8:92

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

70:30

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Dien Tran (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Damien Riggins (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Barding (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	10%	Loss	✗	0.08	-
R2	LL	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.23
R4	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.13
R7	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Thomas Johnson-Averette

15th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

4.9

Diff

40:60

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 40:60

70:30

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Charles Dunn (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Matt Garner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

10:90

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Trevor Galligan (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 8:92, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.27
R4	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	10%	Win	✗	0.92	3.70

Damien Riggins

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Joe Robles (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

70:30

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

10:90

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 8:92

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.22
R3	LL	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	10%	Loss	✗	0.08	-

Thomas Bray

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 40:60

30:70

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Trevyn June (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	LL	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Brandon Hartman

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Dominick Wolfgang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Rich Pauls (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

10:90

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Trevor Galligan (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 8:92

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	10%	Loss	✗	0.08	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.