Bravo, Star of the Show at Battle Hardened: Chicago 2024 - Living Legend
Bravo, Star of the Show
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 8-1-0
89%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.7
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Kyle Femmer (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs John Zapata (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
70:30
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 69:31
55:45
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Ian Carrico (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Julien Bergeron (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R8 LL
Round 8: Win vs Jude Cornett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R9 LL
Round 9: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 60% | Win |
13th • 4-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.4
Diff
60:40
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Ronit Patel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs John Zapata (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
60:40
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Julien Bergeron (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs SEAN STELL (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 57:43
70:30
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Austin Henry (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 69:31
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 70% | Win |
17th • 4-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Alice Abuhadba (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 57:43
70:30
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Rich Pauls (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 71:29
70:30
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Dan Groseclose (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 69:31
Round 5: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
50:50
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Charlie Herren (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Win |
18th • 4-2-0
83%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.3
Surp
2.2
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
85:15
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 87:13
35:65
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
60:40
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
23rd • 3-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.6
Diff
70:30
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Kruman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Mark Cornett (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Kyle Femmer (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Loss |
26th • 3-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Dylan Wilhite (Unknown)
70:30
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Dawn DeLozier (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 71:29
55:45
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Charlie Herren (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-1-1
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.3
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Draw vs John Milner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
70:30
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Joe Robles (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 71:29
35:65
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Draw |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.