Battle Hardened: Chicago 2024 - Living Legend - Briar, Warden of Thorns (LL)

Briar, Warden of Thorns

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Dawn DeLozier

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 70:30

35:65

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Cornett (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Trevor Galligan (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Julien Bergeron (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.13
R2	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.53
R4	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Rich Pauls

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Carrico (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 33:67

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle Femmer (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Alexis Gunthner

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Garner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Perry (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Lexi, Livewire	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	LL	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joe Robles

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Dien Tran (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.