Aurora, Shooting Star
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
18th • 5-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mika Vainio (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Artis Ivanovs (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Linus Lindroth (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Rain Ööpik (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Victor Reis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jonas Ståleker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
21st • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Magne Gjennestad (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rene Lorentsen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tomasz Stanicki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aaron Leino (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Adam Hove (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Luca Love (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
22nd • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jarrett Yu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Juha Saarnilampi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Victor Reis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Paweł Kręcki (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
Round 5: Loss vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Thomas Sandén (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Loss |
24th • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.4
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andreas Björnsson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Paul Petersson-Rebelo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Øyvind Garberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mikael Lundberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Reyes (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
36th • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
Round 2: Loss vs Andreas Björnsson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Sandén (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Fredrik Mecklin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Tov Hanssen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
51st • 3-3-1
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Teo Rutisson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
Round 2: Loss vs Hugi Hlynsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Wojciech Arendt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Harry Nurmi (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Reyes (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Lewis Day (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Henrik Dahlström (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Draw |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
46th • 3-4-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andreas Danielsson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Martin Andreasson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adam Hove (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mikael Lundberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Paul Petersson-Rebelo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Henrik Nilsson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lewis Day (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
58th • 1-6-0
100%
Meta
-2.9
Perf
3.8
Surp
0.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rene Lorentsen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Wojciech Arendt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Thomas Haugmo (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Lukaszewicz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Marcus Karlsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
Round 7: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Martin Andreasson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Henrik Nilsson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Teo Rutisson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Ramirez givell (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Antton Valkama (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Christofer Lindholm (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andreas Danielsson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mikael Vedemar (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.