Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Battle Hardened: Stockholm 2024
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 6-3-0
44%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
4.3
Surp
3.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
Round 2: Win vs Fredrik Mecklin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michał Biereg (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mika Vainio (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Antti Tikkakoski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Simon Nielsen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Niklas Astner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Niklas Astner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Mika Vainio (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 35% | Loss |
20th • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Artis Ivanovs (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Elton Åhman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Romans Asachovs (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marcus Vestin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Mika Vainio (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jesper Lindström (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Quentin Leroy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rikard Wallström (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Aleksi Mäkinen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
Round 4: Win vs Marcus Karlsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Harry Nurmi (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Péter Kökény (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tommi Vornanen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Heidi Lehikoinen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wojciech Arendt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tov Hanssen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mikael Lundberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Markus Jonsson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rain Ööpik (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Teo Rutisson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.