Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 6-3-0
11%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
4.8
Surp
3.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Win vs Fredrik Mecklin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michał Biereg (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mika Vainio (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Antti Tikkakoski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Simon Nielsen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Niklas Astner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Niklas Astner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Mika Vainio (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
11% (1/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
20th • 4-3-0
14%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Artis Ivanovs (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Elton Åhman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Romans Asachovs (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marcus Vestin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Mika Vainio (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jesper Lindström (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Quentin Leroy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
0%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rikard Wallström (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Aleksi Mäkinen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
Round 4: Win vs Marcus Karlsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Harry Nurmi (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Péter Kökény (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tommi Vornanen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 28:72
Round 3: Loss vs Heidi Lehikoinen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wojciech Arendt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tov Hanssen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
0%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mikael Lundberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Markus Jonsson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rain Ööpik (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Teo Rutisson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.