Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Battle Hardened: Stockholm

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mika Vainio

2nd • 7-3-0

40%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tomasz Stanicki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Reyes (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joakim Gustafsson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hugi Hlynsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nic Palm (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Niklas Astner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 20:80

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michał Biereg (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Hugi Hlynsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

40% (4/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.07
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Win	✗	0.80	0.46
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.48
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.27
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.53
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Rikard Wallström

50th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joakim Gustafsson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Vong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Quentin Leroy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Hove (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Martin Andreasson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Klas Bergholtz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Toni Savolainen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.20

Antton Valkama

56th • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Hove (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aleksejs Titovs (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Quentin Leroy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicklas Holm (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Marcus Karlsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.51
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.