Battle Hardened: Stockholm 2024 - Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn (CC)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mika Vainio

2nd • 7-3-0

30%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.9

Surp

3.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tomasz Stanicki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Reyes (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joakim Gustafsson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hugi Hlynsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nic Palm (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Niklas Astner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 25:75

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michał Biereg (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Hugi Hlynsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

30% (3/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.12
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.40
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.48
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.27
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.76
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Rikard Wallström

50th • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joakim Gustafsson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Vong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Quentin Leroy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Hove (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Martin Andreasson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Klas Bergholtz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Toni Savolainen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.54
R4	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Antton Valkama

56th • 2-5-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Hove (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aleksejs Titovs (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Quentin Leroy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicklas Holm (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

15:85

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Marcus Karlsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

0% (0/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.83
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.