Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry at Battle Hardened: Stockholm 2024
Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 7-1-0
75%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jiahao Chen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christian Fichtner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Martin Andreasson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 83:17
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dennis Fröberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 68:32
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Paweł Kręcki (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mika Vainio (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Hugi Hlynsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Hugi Hlynsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
30th • 4-2-1
43%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Aleksi Mäkinen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Øyvind Garberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 68:32
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rene Lorentsen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Martin Andreasson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 83:17
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Andres Dorogan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tomasz Stanicki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Péter Kökény (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 68:32
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 45% | Draw |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
37th • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Luca Love (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thomas Haugmo (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 47:53
Round 3: Loss vs Øyvind Garberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lewis Day (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jarrett Yu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Antton Valkama (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 57:43
Round 7: Win vs Aleksi Mäkinen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
47th • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Fredrik Mecklin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jiahao Chen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nicklas Holm (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs David Tallstig (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Lauri Lehto (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Elton Åhman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Klas Bergholtz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
57th • 2-4-1
57%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dmitri Sidorenko (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Harry Nurmi (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Emilia Mattsson (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Klas Bergholtz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Wojciech Arendt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Rikard Wallström (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 65% | Draw |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-1
60%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.1
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jevgeni Dubei (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 68:32
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Antti Tikkakoski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jiahao Chen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Joel Halvars (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Teo Rutisson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Draw |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.1
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jesper Siljekvist (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 78:22
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Romans Asachovs (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Luca Love (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.