Battle Hardened: Stockholm 2024 - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Pauli Viimaranta

33rd • 4-1-2

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gints Dreimanis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Dmitri Sidorenko (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Christian Fichtner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Henrik Dahlström (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Elton Åhman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Romans Asachovs (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Ramirez givell (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.28
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Draw	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.37
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Jonas Ståleker

27th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Lukaszewicz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marcus Karlsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Sandén (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Markus Jonsson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Adam Hove (Dash I/O) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tomasz Stanicki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.61
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Dennis Fröberg

39th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mikael Lundberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Italo Molina (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Niklas Astner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 28:72

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Markus Jonsson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Sandén (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.84
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Péter Kökény

41st • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Petersson-Rebelo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fredrik Bill (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stefan Karlsson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justus Hedberg (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Luca Love (Dash I/O) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Victor Reis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.61
R6	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Mikael Lundberg

42nd • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Tallstig (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Fröberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Reyes (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tov Hanssen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wojciech Arendt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tommi Vornanen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.06
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.68
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.61
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Marcus Karlsson

53rd • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Leino (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonas Ståleker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Vong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jarrett Yu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Antton Valkama (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 86:14

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.02
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.22

Asger Thomsen Brem

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Fröberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justus Hedberg (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dmitri Sidorenko (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Moynagh (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 33:67

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Christofer Lindholm

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bendik Mihle Hansen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Karlin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Romans Asachovs (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.18
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Øyvind Garberg

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Lukaszewicz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Reis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tommi Vornanen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.38
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jevgeni Dubei

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lauri Lehto (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 28:72

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Magne Gjennestad (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Lukaszewicz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.