Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Battle Hardened: Stockholm 2024

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jiahao Chen

40th • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Niklas Astner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Teo Rutisson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lauri Lehto (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andres Dorogan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dmitri Sidorenko (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Italo Molina (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rain Ööpik (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.23
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Thomas Lukaszewicz

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Øyvind Garberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonas Ståleker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jevgeni Dubei (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jarrett Yu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aleksi Mäkinen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.70
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.85
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Dmitri Sidorenko

dropped • 2-2-1

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Toni Savolainen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Pauli Viimaranta (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Klas Bergholtz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jiahao Chen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Draw	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.02
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Aaron Leino

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marcus Karlsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andres Dorogan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jesper Lindström (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andreas Danielsson

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tov Hanssen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bendik Mihle Hansen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Elton Åhman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jesper Siljekvist (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Quentin Leroy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.43
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.33
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.