Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened: Stockholm 2024
Dorinthea Ironsong
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
19th • 5-2-0
57%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Antti Tikkakoski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Aleksi Mäkinen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rikard Wallström (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Antton Valkama (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Andreas Danielsson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs uno hanssen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Nic Palm (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.