Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.9
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tommi Vornanen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
Round 2: Win vs Lewis Day (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.