Ira, Crimson Haze at Battle Hardened: Portland 2024

Ira, Crimson Haze

28 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ben Black

5th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Wellendorf (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Sean Cowan (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Alex Hamilton (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Logan King (Enigma) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs John Milner (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Enigma) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Majin Bae (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R8 Commoner

Round 8: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R3	Commoner	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Commoner	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R5	Commoner	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.44
R6	Commoner	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.58
R7	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.31
R8	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Aurora Kynkor

9th • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

35:65

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Henry Gomez (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Tristin Sedlacek (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Canady (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Majin Bae (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Aaron Roecker (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.21
R2	Commoner	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.85
R5	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Justin Irby

12th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Austin Hughes (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Grytness (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Eugene C (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Amanda Sullender (Chane) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Dylan Dart (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Commoner	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.41
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Catherine Levine

13th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.2

Diff

35:65

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs aiden anable (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Ben Swinford (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Doll (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Fritz (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Eli Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Steven Morgan (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Commoner	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Commoner	Victor Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.07
R6	Commoner	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Naib Mobassir

17th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Matt Muus (Enigma) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Jason Wellendorf (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Chane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Taylor Ward (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Alldredge (Chane) - Expected: 61:39

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Mikko Pena (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Commoner	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	Commoner	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.41
R5	Commoner	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.51
R6	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Emery Powell

18th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.1

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Ethan Doll (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Paul Dalenberg (Chane) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Carson Osborne (Chane) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Gwendolyn Thompson (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Mike Buttazzoni (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Majin Bae (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Aaron Roecker (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	Commoner	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.31
R4	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.85
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Dylan Dart

24th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Jaina Benton (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Amanda Sullender (Chane) - Expected: 61:39

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Nate Davis (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Enigma) - Expected: 58:42

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Mikko Pena (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Irby (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Chris Martin (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	Commoner	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Commoner	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.44
R5	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Commoner	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Aaron Roecker

25th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Sean Cowan (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs John Milner (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Logan King (Enigma) - Expected: 58:42

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Henry Gomez (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Emery Powell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R2	Commoner	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	Commoner	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.33
R4	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.07
R6	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patrick Steiche

30th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Jon Roth (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Montana Krasnov (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Kolby Phelps (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Dakota Cochran (Enigma) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	Commoner	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.67
R7	Commoner	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Merrick Kemp

31st • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Alex Hamilton (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Manship (Chane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Set (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Irby (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Porter (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	Commoner	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.30
R4	Commoner	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Commoner	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.61
R7	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Phil Hensley

34th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Paul Dalenberg (Chane) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Chane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs William Cavanagh (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Set (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Kyle James (Chane) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Ian Smith (Chane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Commoner	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.85
R5	Commoner	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.51
R6	Commoner	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.61
R7	Commoner	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Joseph Fanno

35th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Sean Maloney (Unknown)

60:40

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Jason Watkins (Chane) - Expected: 61:39

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Chane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Paul Dalenberg (Chane) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Commoner	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	Commoner	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

Joshua Frailey

49th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

60:40

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Taylor Ward (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Eric Lerer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Freund (Chane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Tristin Sedlacek (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Zach Nichols (Enigma) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Ashton Dean (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Commoner	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	Commoner	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Commoner	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.28
R7	Commoner	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Eric Lerer

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Martin (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Frailey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Steven Stone (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs James Pack (Chane) - Expected: 61:39

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs James Stevenson (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Commoner	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.57
R5	Commoner	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Mike Buttazzoni

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Brian Ly (Chane) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Montana Krasnov (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Kyle James (Chane) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Emery Powell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	Commoner	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.29
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.90
R4	Commoner	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.57
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Robert Cormorant

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Eli Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs James Pack (Chane) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Dean Carr (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Grytness (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Majin Bae (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	Commoner	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.29
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.20
R5	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Kolby Phelps

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Cary Young (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Enigma) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Richard Truong (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Steiche (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Chris Martin (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Commoner	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Commoner	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.43
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Commoner	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Maxwell Perlin

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Alex Groat (Chane) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Chane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs James Stevenson (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma) - Expected: 58:42

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Gannon (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.14
R2	Commoner	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	Commoner	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Commoner	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Commoner	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Anthony Pham

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Dean Carr (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Set (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Enigma) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs John Milner (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Commoner	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R3	Commoner	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Commoner	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Billy Horn

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Lockwood (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Pearse (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Jon Roth (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	Commoner	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Commoner	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kevin Canady

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Eric Ting-jui Hsu (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Jackson Klingbeil (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Voghell (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Eugene C

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Irby (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Doll (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R2	Commoner	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Madison Thompson

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Majin Bae (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Snow (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Gannon (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Morgan Bawcom-Randall (Enigma) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	Commoner	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	Commoner	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Nelson Lagat

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Ward (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Set (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	Commoner	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Commoner	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	Commoner	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Dean Carr

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Steven Stone (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Robert Cormorant (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jason Wellendorf

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Ben Black (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs John Milner (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Jacob Powell

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Alldredge (Chane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Paul Dalenberg (Chane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	Commoner	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	Commoner	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Jackson Klingbeil

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Jake Denning (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Canady (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.