Battle Hardened: Portland 2024 - Commoner - Oldhim (Commoner)

Oldhim

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brodie Spurlock

2nd • 8-2-0

100%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

5.0

Surp

3.9

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Harter (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Richard Truong (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Fanno (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Roecker (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Mikko Pena (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 Commoner

Round 8: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R9 Commoner

Round 9: Win vs Luke Manship (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R10

R10 Commoner

Round 10: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Commoner	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mikko Pena

11th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Ng (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Majin Bae (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Dylan Harter (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Jonah Freund (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Dylan Dart (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Victor Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rob Harechmak

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Gedeon (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Vore (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Jack Lockwood (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Chris Martin (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Steven Morgan (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Commoner	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Commoner	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ben Swinford

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Catherine Levine (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs James Pack (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Gannon (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Natalie Birch

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.