Battle Hardened: Portland 2024 - Commoner - Dash (Commoner)

Dash

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gabriel Kammeyer

33rd • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Eugene C (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Powell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Tristin Sedlacek (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Joseph Gannon (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.39
R3	Commoner	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Commoner	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Commoner	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Commoner	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kevin Set

39th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Jules Clark (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Merrick Kemp (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Nelson Lagat (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Phil Hensley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Jaina Benton (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Joseph Gannon (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.78
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Commoner	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Commoner	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Cristopher Allen

42nd • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Timothy Pearse (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Tiu (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Dylan Grytness (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Voghell (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Zach Nichols (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Commoner	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

John Milner

43rd • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Fritz (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Roecker (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Jason Wellendorf (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Ben Black (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Victor Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.78
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Commoner	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Commoner	Victor Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Porter

44th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Alex Groat (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Smith (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Alex Hamilton (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Jason Watkins (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Merrick Kemp (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Eli Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Richard Truong

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Natalie Birch (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Kolby Phelps (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Zach Nichols (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Commoner	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Commoner	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Taylor Ward

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Nelson Lagat (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.02
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Jacob Snow

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Madison Thompson (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Gwendolyn Thompson (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.91
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sean Cowan

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Roecker (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Black (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Jaina Benton (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Commoner	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.