Battle Hardened: Portland 2024 - Commoner - Chane (Commoner)

Chane

20 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Luke Manship

3rd • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs James Stevenson (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Richard Kerns (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Dennis Pham (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Nghia Tran (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Michael Dailey (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R8 Commoner

Round 8: Win vs Ian Smith (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R9 Commoner

Round 9: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.30
R3	Commoner	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.60
R6	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ian Smith

5th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle James (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Jon Roth (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Porter (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Alldredge (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Aaron Nash (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Phil Hensley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R8 Commoner

Round 8: Loss vs Luke Manship (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Commoner	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.81
R7	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.18
R8	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dennis Pham

14th • 5-2-0

29%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.2

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Jonah Freund (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Maxwell Perlin (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Manship (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Joseph Fanno (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Henry Gomez (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.39
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R4	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.97
R6	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Michael Dailey

27th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Snow (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Nate Davis (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Dakota Cochran (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Jason Watkins (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Tiu (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Luke Manship (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Tristin Sedlacek (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Commoner	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Commoner	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Alldredge

29th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Powell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs William Cavanagh (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Smith (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Tiu (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.19
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R3	Commoner	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Commoner	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Commoner	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jason Watkins

38th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Ben Swinford (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Fanno (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Phil Hensley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Porter (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Eric Ting-jui Hsu (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Jaina Benton (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R4	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Commoner	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Commoner	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Commoner	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Paul Dalenberg

46th • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Phil Hensley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Emery Powell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Powell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Carson Osborne (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Robert Mills (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Tristin Sedlacek (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Joseph Fanno (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R4	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.77
R6	Commoner	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Aaron Nash

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Jaylon Jones (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Voghell (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Eli Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Ian Smith (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R4	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Commoner	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kyle James

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Ian Smith (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Martin (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Andrew nelson (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Mike Buttazzoni (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Phil Hensley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Commoner	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	Commoner	Victor Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Jonah Freund

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Gannon (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Mikko Pena (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Dylan Grytness (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.81
R4	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Amanda Sullender

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Tabitha Stehman (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Dart (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Zach Nichols (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Irby (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Gwendolyn Thompson (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Commoner	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Carson Osborne

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Galleran (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Emery Powell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Paul Dalenberg (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Ting-jui Hsu (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Commoner	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan Gedeon

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Rob Harechmak (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Jack Lockwood (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Majin Bae (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Eli Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

James Pack

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Keven Meyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Robert Cormorant (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Ben Swinford (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Lerer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Sara Cady

dropped • 1-1-1

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Robbie Hilton (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Draw vs Zach Nichols (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Tiu (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Commoner	Enigma	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrew nelson

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Gannon (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Logan King (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle James (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Commoner	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dylan Harter

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Morgan Bawcom-Randall (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Mikko Pena (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tim Chambers

dropped • 0-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Tristin Sedlacek (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Galleran (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Draw vs Morgan Bawcom-Randall (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Enigma	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Alex Groat

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Maxwell Perlin (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Porter (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Maxwell Taylor (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Commoner	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Brian Ly

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs William Cavanagh (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Mike Buttazzoni (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.