Olympia at Battle Hardened: Portland 2024

Olympia

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthew Tiu

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Sara Cady (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Nate Davis (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Alldredge (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Commoner	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Commoner	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Richard Kerns

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Steven Stone (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Keven Meyer (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Manship (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Dakota Cochran (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Commoner	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jake Denning

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Jackson Klingbeil (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Dakota Cochran (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.