Battle Hardened: Portland 2024 - Commoner - Betsy (Commoner)

Betsy

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chris Martin

21st • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Eric Lerer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Kyle James (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Rob Harechmak (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Kolby Phelps (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Ng (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Dylan Dart (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Commoner	Victor Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nate Davis

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Briggs (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Michael Dailey (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Dart (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Tiu (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alex Hamilton

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Merrick Kemp (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Black (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Porter (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cary Young

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Kolby Phelps (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Ashton Dean (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Mills (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Commoner	Bravo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.