Battle Hardened: Portland 2024 - Commoner - Iyslander (Commoner)

Iyslander

22 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

John Zapata

1st • 10-0-0

100%

Meta

+4.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

4.9

Diff

65:35

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Nelson Lagat (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Steven Morgan (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

65:35

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Aurora Kynkor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Luke Manship (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R8 Commoner

Round 8: Win vs Ben Black (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R9 Commoner

Round 9: Win vs Nghia Tran (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R10

R10 Commoner

Round 10: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.06
R2	Commoner	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Commoner	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.32
R6	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Commoner	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.65
R8	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.51
R9	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nghia Tran

3rd • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Carson Osborne (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Chris Martin (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Nash (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Luke Manship (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Dennis Pham (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Aurora Kynkor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R8 Commoner

Round 8: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 Commoner

Round 9: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Commoner	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.21
R3	Commoner	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Commoner	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.41
R5	Commoner	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Commoner	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.62
R7	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.49
R8	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Eric Dauernnheim

5th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Grayson Fountain (Unknown)

65:35

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Phil Hensley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

25:75

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Enigma) - Expected: 27:73

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

25:75

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Matt Muus (Enigma) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

65:35

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Joseph Fanno (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Justin Irby (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

R8 Commoner

Round 8: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.16
R3	Commoner	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	Commoner	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Commoner	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.17
R6	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.47
R7	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.55
R8	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shawn Dhaliwal

5th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

65:35

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Mike Buttazzoni (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Taylor Ward (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

65:35

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Steiche (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

25:75

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Enigma) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Voghell (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Catherine Levine (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R8 Commoner

Round 8: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.08
R2	Commoner	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.24
R4	Commoner	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.94
R5	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.55
R8	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Majin Bae

10th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

65:35

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Madison Thompson (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Mikko Pena (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Gedeon (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Robert Cormorant (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Emery Powell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Ben Black (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.09
R2	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Commoner	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.40
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.45
R6	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.54
R7	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Jacob Pacheco

16th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Porter (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Doll (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Steiche (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Ian Smith (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Steven Morgan (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.45
R6	Commoner	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Commoner	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Lucas Voghell

28th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Nash (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Galleran (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Canady (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Enigma) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Commoner	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.36
R5	Commoner	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Commoner	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Henry Gomez

32nd • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

65:35

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Jaina Benton (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs William Cavanagh (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Richard Kerns (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Roecker (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	Commoner	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Commoner	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	Commoner	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Commoner	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Eli Cook

36th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

65:35

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Robert Cormorant (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Robert Mills (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Nash (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Gedeon (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Catherine Levine (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

25:75

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma) - Expected: 27:73

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Christopher Porter (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.09
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Commoner	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Commoner	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.53
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	Commoner	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R7	Commoner	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Robert Mills

48th • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Gwendolyn Thompson (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Eli Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Steven Morgan (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Cary Young (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Paul Dalenberg (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Galleran (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Timothy Pearse (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Commoner	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Commoner	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Commoner	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Maxwell Taylor

dropped • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

25:75

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Logan King (Enigma) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Gwendolyn Thompson (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Alex Groat (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Dakota Cochran (Enigma) - Expected: 27:73

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Galleran (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Frailey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R4	Commoner	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R5	Commoner	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Gwendolyn Thompson

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Robert Mills (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Snow (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

65:35

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Emery Powell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Amanda Sullender (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Commoner	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Commoner	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.93

Dylan Grytness

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Vore (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Justin Irby (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

65:35

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Cormorant (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Jonah Freund (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.25
R3	Commoner	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Commoner	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Dyllon Dietz

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Billy Horn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Tristin Sedlacek (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.38
R4	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Commoner	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Keven Meyer

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs James Pack (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Richard Kerns (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Eric Ting-jui Hsu (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Steven Morgan (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R2	Commoner	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Commoner	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

William Cavanagh

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Brian Ly (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Alldredge (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Phil Hensley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R2	Commoner	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Jack Lockwood

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Billy Horn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Gedeon (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Harechmak (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R2	Commoner	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Montana Krasnov

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

25:75

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Morgan Bawcom-Randall (Enigma) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

65:35

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Steiche (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Mike Buttazzoni (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.62
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

aiden anable

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Catherine Levine (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 65:35

25:75

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Enigma) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R2	Commoner	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	Commoner	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Alexander Vore

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Grytness (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Rob Harechmak (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jesse Kennon

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Enigma) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thomas Briggs

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Nate Davis (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.